io.github.spfunctions/simplefunctions

Record a new position in a thesis for tracking. Use after an intent fills or a manual trade.

Advanced: Merge suggested causal tree nodes from evaluations into the tree (append-only).

Fetch many markets at once by ticker list. Cheaper than calling get_market_detail in a loop.

Browse public skills from the community. Free-tier and rate-limited. Filter by category, search, or sort by popularity.

Cancel an active intent. Stops trigger evaluation and prevents execution.

Delete a position record from a thesis.

Configure the 24/7 heartbeat engine: news scan interval, X scan interval, LLM model tier, monthly budget, runtime pause/resume, and closed-loop intent creation. Agent can speed up monitoring during high volatility or slow down to save budget.

Declare an execution intent: "buy X when condition Y, expire at Z." Intents are the single gateway for all order execution. The local runtime daemon evaluates triggers and executes via user's Kalshi/Polymarket keys.

Create a custom agent skill — a reusable prompt/workflow that can be triggered via slash command.

Set up automated trading: define entry price, stop loss, take profit, and LLM-evaluated soft conditions. The heartbeat engine checks conditions every 15 min and executes when met.

Create a new prediction market thesis from a TESTABLE CLAIM — a statement that can be verified true or false at a future time. GOOD: "Bitcoin closes 2026 above $50,000". BAD: "High conviction due to large price gap" (that is reasoning, not a claim). Builds a causal tree and scans for mispriced contracts. Formation takes ~60s.

Cross-reference any text with thousands of prediction market contracts. Paste content + topics, get divergence analysis: where sentiment disagrees with market prices. No auth, no Firecrawl needed. Demo/trial entry point.

Browse public theses from other users. Free-tier and rate-limited. Pass a slug to get details, or omit to list all.

Browse public theses (alias of explore_public). Pass slug to get one, omit to list.

Fork a public skill into your collection. No slug needed — just the skill ID.

Fork a thesis. Two modes: (1) Clone — call with just idOrSlug to copy a PUBLIC thesis verbatim into your collection. (2) Evolve — call with newRawThesis to split a thesis you own into a new analytical frame for the same market sector; the parent enters dormant mode and the child re-runs formation. Use evolve when the current frame is fundamentally inadequate for what the evidence now shows.

Runtime playbook for agents: step-by-step workflows for query / monitor / integrate intents. Use when an agent is lost or needs onboarding.

Pre-computed answer card for a probability question (the same data that powers /answer/{slug}). Returns probability, confidence, and citations.

Advanced: Kalshi account balance and portfolio value.

Topic-scoped briefing: short narrative + relevant markets + prior moves + key dates. Reusable as a callable /briefing card.

Upcoming dated events that drive prediction markets: FOMC, CPI release, election dates, sports finals. Returns date, topic, and linked tickers.

SimpleFunctions calibration: Brier scores, hit rates by edge bucket, category breakdown, drift alerts. Measured against resolved/settled markets.

Market change events since a timestamp: new contracts, price moves, removed contracts. Used by the live feed and agent context refreshers.

Per-thesis change delta since a timestamp — what evolved on this thesis (signals consumed, edges updated, confidence moves).

Get a single Congress member by bioguide ID.

Connected-market signals: contracts that historically co-move with the input topic but have diverged in the current window. Surfaces "this market should have moved but didn't" trades.

START HERE. Global market snapshot: top edges (mispriced contracts), price movers, highlights, traditional markets — live exchange data updated every 15 min. With thesisId + apiKey: thesis-specific context including causal tree, edges with orderbook depth, evaluation history, and track record. Global context is free-tier and rate-limited; API keys unlock higher limits.

Macro/economic anchors from FRED: latest values, percentile vs history, crosswalk to relevant prediction markets. For grounding macro theses.

Top mispriced markets across all theses, ranked by edge size. Shows where your model disagrees with the market. No auth = public thesis edges. Auth = private + public.

Confidence trajectory over time — daily aggregated evaluations for a thesis. Use to analyze trends, detect convergence/divergence.

Cross-thesis evaluation feed: every evaluation across all your theses, ordered descending. Powers `sf feed` CLI.

Advanced: Recent trade fills on Kalshi.

Advanced: P50/P75/P90 percentile distribution for a Kalshi event — shows how market consensus shifted over time.

Get a single glossary term with full definition and links.

Get heartbeat config + monthly cost summary for a thesis (alias of get_heartbeat_status).

Get heartbeat config + this month's cost summary for a thesis. See news/X scan intervals, model tier, budget usage.

Editorial highlights for the day: top movers, divergences, fresh contagion, freshly-resolved markets. Curated summary view.

Historical SimpleFunctions Index snapshots. Pre-computed every 15 minutes, stored since v2 launch (2026-04-09). For charting trends.

Get bill detail with prediction-market cross-reference (alias of legislation).

Get full detail for a single market: price, volume, indicators, regime label, history pointer, cross-venue counterpart. Lower-level than inspect_ticker — raw JSON only.

Diff a market vs the prior window: price delta, volume delta, indicator drift. For "what changed in the last 6h?" questions.

Get rolling 7-day price + indicator history for a single market. For trajectory questions and chart rendering.

SimpleFunctions Prediction Market Index v2. Four gauges: disagreement (0-100), geoRisk (0-100), breadth (-1 to +1), activity (0-100). Updated every 15 minutes.

Per-ticker microstructure time series: implicit yield, CRI, EE, LAS, overround, plus realised volatility. Used for charting indicator drift.

Get traditional market prices via Databento. Default: SPY, VIX, TLT, GLD, USO. Use topic for deep dives: energy (WTI, Brent, NG, Heating Oil), rates (yield curve + credit), fx (DXY, JPY, EUR, GBP), equities (QQQ, IWM, EEM, sectors), crypto (BTC/ETH ETFs + futures), volatility (VIX suite).

Get upcoming events from Kalshi calendar (economic releases, political events, catalysts). Free-tier and rate-limited.

Recently-listed markets (new contracts) on Kalshi and Polymarket. For finding fresh trading opportunities.

Get a single opinion/essay by slug.

Advanced: Current resting orders on Kalshi.

Advanced: Open Kalshi positions with live P&L. Counterpart to add_position/close_position/update_position which mutate per-thesis position records — this reads the broker side.