# simulate-monte-carlo (remote · simulate-monte-carlo.encodari.workers.dev)

Real Monte Carlo simulation of a compound event/conditional probability. Paid via x402.

- Trust score: 60/100 (medium)
- Change this week: +3
- Registry status: active
- Liveness: live
- Owner verified: no
- Last scored: 2026-08-21

## Components

- remote · `simulate-monte-carlo.encodari.workers.dev`: 60/100 (this document), [markdown](https://verifymcp.io/servers/encodi-simulate-monte-carlo/simulate-monte-carlo.md), [page](https://verifymcp.io/servers/encodi-simulate-monte-carlo/simulate-monte-carlo)

## Channel facts

- Endpoint: `https://simulate-monte-carlo.encodari.workers.dev/mcp`
- Transports: `streamable-http`
- Auth: `none`
- Version: `1.0.0`

## Trust breakdown

How this component scores in each security and reliability category. Every signal is checked automatically against the live server, and we only credit what we can confirm. Scores are 0–100 per category. Scoring method: https://verifymcp.io/docs/scoring (what has changed: https://verifymcp.io/docs/scoring/changelog)

Scored 2026-08-21.

- **Endpoint Security**: 46/100
  - The endpoint's TLS certificate is valid, in date, and uses a strong key.
  - Authorisation not fully verified: no authorisation is required to call this server, and 1 tool(s) never declared a destructiveHint. The MCP spec treats an absent hint as destructive by default, so we cannot call this surface safe.
  - HTTPS enforcement could not be verified: the plaintext port answered with HTTP 405, which proves neither a plaintext path nor enforcement.
  - HSTS check failed: the Strict-Transport-Security header is absent.
  - DNSSEC check failed: this domain isn't protected by DNSSEC.
- **Transport & Reachability**: 100/100
  - Verified streamable-http transport via a live MCP handshake.
- **Schema Quality & AI Usability**: 58/100
  - AI-judged instruction clarity (good).
  - Context-footprint check failed: tool/resource definitions use about 321 tokens (~321/item across 1 items; 1 tools + 0 resources), over budget; trim descriptions and params.
  - Usage-examples check failed: none of the tools include examples.
- **Stability & Change Management**: 33/100
  - Stability observed for 10 of 30 days with no destabilising changes; credit accrues until the full window elapses.
- **Tool Coverage**: 100/100
  - 100% of tools have a non-trivial description (not blank, and not just the tool's name).
  - 100% of tool parameters carry a description.
  - Structured output schemas are declared (100% of tools); any adoption earns full credit.
- **Capabilities**: 100/100
  - Implements a current MCP spec version (2026-07-28).

## Install

### Claude

```bash
claude mcp add --transport http encodi-simulate-monte-carlo https://simulate-monte-carlo.encodari.workers.dev/mcp
```

### Codex

```toml
[mcp_servers.encodi-simulate-monte-carlo]
url = "https://simulate-monte-carlo.encodari.workers.dev/mcp"
```

### opencode

```json
{
  "$schema": "https://opencode.ai/config.json",
  "mcp": {
    "encodi-simulate-monte-carlo": {
      "type": "remote",
      "url": "https://simulate-monte-carlo.encodari.workers.dev/mcp",
      "enabled": true
    }
  }
}
```

### OpenClaw

```bash
openclaw mcp add encodi-simulate-monte-carlo --url https://simulate-monte-carlo.encodari.workers.dev/mcp --transport streamable-http
```

### Hermes

```yaml
mcp_servers:
  encodi-simulate-monte-carlo:
    url: "https://simulate-monte-carlo.encodari.workers.dev/mcp"
```

### Other

```json
{
  "mcpServers": {
    "encodi-simulate-monte-carlo": {
      "type": "http",
      "url": "https://simulate-monte-carlo.encodari.workers.dev/mcp"
    }
  }
}
```

The mcpServers block is a cross-client convention. Remote transports vary, so check your client's docs.

## Changelog

Every change recorded for this component, newest first. Days that predate change tracking, or that we cannot explain, say so: "we were watching and nothing happened" and "we were not watching" are different claims.

### 2026-08-20 (score 60, +1)

No change was recorded against any check on this day. Stability & Change Management went from 27 to 30. That category is still filling its 30-day observation window: 8 days of observed history at the previous scan, 9 at this one. The score rises as the window fills, whether or not the server changes.

### 2026-08-19 (score 59, +1)

No change was recorded against any check on this day. Stability & Change Management went from 23 to 27. That category is still filling its 30-day observation window: 7 days of observed history at the previous scan, 8 at this one. The score rises as the window fills, whether or not the server changes.

### 2026-08-16 (score 58, +1)

No change was recorded against any check on this day. Stability & Change Management went from 13 to 17. That category is still filling its 30-day observation window: 4 days of observed history at the previous scan, 5 at this one. The score rises as the window fills, whether or not the server changes.

### 2026-08-14 (score 57, +1)

No change was recorded against any check on this day. Stability & Change Management went from 7 to 10. That category is still filling its 30-day observation window: 2 days of observed history at the previous scan, 3 at this one. The score rises as the window fills, whether or not the server changes.

### 2026-08-13 (score 56, +1)

No change was recorded against any check on this day. Stability & Change Management went from 3 to 7. That category is still filling its 30-day observation window: 1 days of observed history at the previous scan, 2 at this one. The score rises as the window fills, whether or not the server changes.

### 2026-08-12 (score 55, 0)

- [functional improvement] Stability: unverified → 0.03

### 2026-08-11 (score 55)

First indexed and scored.

## MCP tools (1)

### `simulate_monte_carlo` (~321 tokens)

Simulate a compound event or conditional probability (Monte Carlo)

Actually draws random samples from real distributions and counts outcomes, instead of a model guess about a probability. Declare named random variables (uniform, normal, bernoulli, binomial, poisson, exponential, discrete), an "event" boolean expression over those variable names (e.g. "a > 0.5 && b == 1"), and an optional "condition" expression to estimate a conditional probability P(event | condition) by rejection sampling. Event/condition expressions are parsed and evaluated by a small built-in interpreter (arithmetic, comparisons, &&/||/!, min/max/abs) — no arbitrary code execution. Returns the estimated probability, a 95% confidence interval, and the seed used (pass the same seed back to reproduce the exact result). Costs $0.03 USDC (Base) per call.

Input parameters:

- `condition` (string): Optional boolean expression; if given, the result is P(event | condition), estimated only over trials where this is true.
- `event` (string, required): Boolean expression over the variable names, evaluated each trial (e.g. "a + b > 10", "x == 1 && y < 0.2").
- `seed` (integer): Optional PRNG seed for a reproducible run. If omitted, a random seed is generated and returned in the output.
- `trials` (integer): Number of trials to run. Default 10000, between 100 and 100000.
- `variables` (array, required): Random variables to sample each trial. Max 10.

Output parameters:

- `condition_successes`: Number of trials where condition was true. null if no condition was given.
- `confidence_interval_95`: Approximate 95% confidence interval [low, high] via the normal approximation.
- `error`: Error or warning message. null if none.
- `event_successes` (number): Number of trials (or condition-matching trials) where event was true.
- `probability`: Estimated P(event) or P(event | condition). null if invalid, or if condition matched zero trials.
- `seed_used` (number): The PRNG seed used — pass it back as `seed` to reproduce this exact result.
- `standard_error`: Estimated standard error of the probability estimate.
- `trials_run` (number): Number of trials actually simulated (0 if valid is false).
- `valid` (boolean): false if the input (variables, expressions, limits) was invalid.

## Diagnostics

Captured diagnostic sections: TLS, DNSSEC, Authorisation, Transports. The full working is on the page: https://verifymcp.io/servers/encodi-simulate-monte-carlo/simulate-monte-carlo#diagnostics

## Score history

- 2026-08-21: 60
- 2026-08-20: 60
- 2026-08-19: 59
- 2026-08-18: 58
- 2026-08-17: 58
- 2026-08-16: 58
- 2026-08-15: 57
- 2026-08-14: 57
- 2026-08-13: 56
- 2026-08-12: 55
- 2026-08-11: 55

## Links

- Remote endpoint: https://simulate-monte-carlo.encodari.workers.dev/mcp
- Repository: https://github.com/encodi/simulate-monte-carlo
- Changelog RSS feed: https://verifymcp.io/servers/encodi-simulate-monte-carlo/simulate-monte-carlo.xml
- Changelog JSON feed: https://verifymcp.io/servers/encodi-simulate-monte-carlo/simulate-monte-carlo.json
- HTML version of this page: https://verifymcp.io/servers/encodi-simulate-monte-carlo/simulate-monte-carlo