# Weather Markets Edge Desk (remote · predictionmarketspicks.com)

Kalshi weather markets: live daily-high temperature edges, plus EV, Kelly and base-rate tools.

- Trust score: 73/100 (medium)
- Change this week: +4
- Registry status: active
- Liveness: live
- Owner verified: no
- Last scored: 2026-09-27

## Components

- remote · `predictionmarketspicks.com`: 73/100 (this document), [markdown](https://verifymcp.io/servers/com-predictionmarketspicks-weather/api-mcp-weather-mcp.md), [page](https://verifymcp.io/servers/com-predictionmarketspicks-weather/api-mcp-weather-mcp)

## Channel facts

- Endpoint: `https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp`
- Transports: `streamable-http`
- Auth: `none`
- Version: `1.0.0`

## Trust breakdown

How this component scores in each security and reliability category. Every signal is checked automatically against the live server, and we only credit what we can confirm. Scores are 0–100 per category. Scoring method: https://verifymcp.io/docs/scoring (what has changed: https://verifymcp.io/docs/scoring/changelog)

Scored 2026-09-27.

- **Endpoint Security**: 63/100
  - The endpoint's TLS certificate is valid, in date, and uses a strong key.
  - Authorisation not fully verified: no authorisation is required to call this server, and 6 tool(s) never declared a destructiveHint. The MCP spec treats an absent hint as destructive by default, so we cannot call this surface safe.
  - HTTPS is enforced; there's no plaintext access path.
  - The HSTS (Strict-Transport-Security) header is present.
  - DNSSEC check failed: this domain isn't protected by DNSSEC.
- **Transport & Reachability**: 100/100
  - Verified streamable-http transport via a live MCP handshake.
- **Schema Quality & AI Usability**: 63/100
  - AI-judged instruction clarity (excellent).
  - Context-footprint check failed: tool/resource definitions use about 1640 tokens (~273/item across 6 items; 6 tools + 0 resources), over budget; trim descriptions and params.
  - Usage-examples check failed: none of the tools include examples.
- **Stability & Change Management**: 57/100
  - Stability observed for 17 of 30 days with no destabilising changes; credit accrues until the full window elapses.
- **Tool Coverage**: 100/100
  - 100% of tools have a non-trivial description (not blank, and not just the tool's name).
  - 100% of tool parameters carry a description.
- **Tool Safety**: 100/100
  - No prompt-injection markers were found in the server instructions, tool names or descriptions we captured.
  - We read all 6 captured tool definition(s), and no name or description among them implies an irreversible operation.
  - An AI judge read all 7 captured unit(s) of tool text and found none that tries to manipulate the model reading it.
- **Capabilities**: 100/100
  - Implements a current MCP spec version (2026-07-28).

## Install

### How do I install the Weather Markets Edge Desk MCP server?

Weather Markets Edge Desk is a hosted endpoint at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp, so there is nothing to install locally. Ready-made configuration for Claude, Cursor, VS Code, Codex and 5 more is on this page, copied from each client's own documentation.

### Claude

```bash
claude mcp add --transport http com-predictionmarketspicks-weather 'https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp'
```

### Cursor

```json
{
  "mcpServers": {
    "com-predictionmarketspicks-weather": {
      "url": "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp"
    }
  }
}
```

### VS Code

```json
{
  "servers": {
    "com-predictionmarketspicks-weather": {
      "type": "http",
      "url": "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp"
    }
  }
}
```

### Codex

```toml
[mcp_servers.com-predictionmarketspicks-weather]
url = "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp"
```

### opencode

```json
{
  "$schema": "https://opencode.ai/config.json",
  "mcp": {
    "com-predictionmarketspicks-weather": {
      "type": "remote",
      "url": "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp",
      "enabled": true
    }
  }
}
```

### OpenClaw

```bash
openclaw mcp add com-predictionmarketspicks-weather --url 'https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp' --transport streamable-http
```

### Hermes

```yaml
mcp_servers:
  com-predictionmarketspicks-weather:
    url: "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp"
```

### Netclaw

```json
{
  "McpServers": {
    "com-predictionmarketspicks-weather": {
      "Transport": "http",
      "Url": "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp"
    }
  }
}
```

### Vellum

```bash
assistant mcp add com-predictionmarketspicks-weather -t streamable-http -u 'https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp'
```

### Other

```json
{
  "mcpServers": {
    "com-predictionmarketspicks-weather": {
      "type": "http",
      "url": "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp"
    }
  }
}
```

The mcpServers block is a cross-client convention. Remote transports vary, so check your client's docs.

## Changelog

Every change recorded for this component, newest first. Days that predate change tracking, or that we cannot explain, say so: "we were watching and nothing happened" and "we were not watching" are different claims.

### 2026-09-27 (score 73, +1)

No change was recorded against any check on this day. Stability & Change Management went from 53 to 57. That category is still filling its 30-day observation window: 16 days of observed history at the previous scan, 17 at this one. The score rises as the window fills, whether or not the server changes.

### 2026-09-25 (score 72, +1)

- [functional] We updated how we score, so this day's move reflects our rubric, not a change to the server

### 2026-09-23 (score 71, +1)

No change was recorded against any check on this day. Stability & Change Management went from 40 to 43. That category is still filling its 30-day observation window: 12 days of observed history at the previous scan, 13 at this one. The score rises as the window fills, whether or not the server changes.

### 2026-09-21 (score 70, +1)

No change was recorded against any check on this day. Stability & Change Management went from 33 to 37. That category is still filling its 30-day observation window: 10 days of observed history at the previous scan, 11 at this one. The score rises as the window fills, whether or not the server changes.

### 2026-09-19 (score 69, +1)

No change was recorded against any check on this day. Stability & Change Management went from 27 to 30. That category is still filling its 30-day observation window: 8 days of observed history at the previous scan, 9 at this one. The score rises as the window fills, whether or not the server changes.

### 2026-09-18 (score 68, 0)

- [security] The server rewrote its instructions, which are the text every model session reads

### 2026-09-17 (score 68, +1)

No change was recorded against any check on this day. Stability & Change Management went from 20 to 23. That category is still filling its 30-day observation window: 6 days of observed history at the previous scan, 7 at this one. The score rises as the window fills, whether or not the server changes.

### 2026-09-15 (score 67, +1)

No change was recorded against any check on this day. Stability & Change Management went from 13 to 17. That category is still filling its 30-day observation window: 4 days of observed history at the previous scan, 5 at this one. The score rises as the window fills, whether or not the server changes.

## MCP tools (6)

### `edge_alerts` (~277 tokens)

Edge Alerts (weather / commodity / mispricing)

Read the edge alerts our models generate on Kalshi — weather, bitcoin/silver/gold/oil, and mispricings — as a live feed. Each alert carries feed, tier (SPECULATIVE/MODERATE/STRONG), side, price in cents, model probability, edge in percentage points, and a Kalshi market link. A Pro key returns the feed in real time; without a key you get the same feed delayed 24 hours with the thesis stripped. Every subscriber receives the identical, impersonal feed at the same time — the signals are not tailored to any individual. Filters (feed, min_tier, since) SELECT which alerts you see; they never change the signal content. Use for "any edge on Kalshi", "weather trade signals", "latest mispricings". Impersonal market analysis for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Trade responsibly.

Input parameters:

- `feed` (string): Comma-separated feeds to include: weather, bitcoin, silver, gold, oil, mispricing, sports_arb, nfl. Omit for all.
- `limit` (integer): Max alerts to return (default 25).
- `min_tier` (string): Minimum confidence tier (returns that tier and above).
- `since` (string): ISO-8601 timestamp — only alerts created after it.

### `convert_probability` (~150 tokens)

Convert Probability / Odds

Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. Give one value and its format and get all three back (American odds carry no commas, e.g. +441 or -200). Use for "what is +150 as a probability", "convert 62% to American odds", "decimal to implied odds".

Input parameters:

- `format` (required): Format of `value`: probability (0–100 %), american (e.g. -200 / +150), or decimal (e.g. 2.5). One of: probability · american · decimal.
- `value` (required): The numeric value to convert. Accepts a number or a numeric string ("+150", "62%", "2.5").

### `base_rate_gap` (~277 tokens)

Base Rate Gap

Compare a market price against the historical base rate for a class of events and get the gap in percentage points plus a signal and sample-size quality. Pass either a known base-rate id (one of: incumbent_reelected, fed_hold_unemp_below_4, fed_cut_cpi_above_3, recession_called_12mo, sp500_positive_year, bitcoin_above_100k_eoy, gdp_growth_above_2, cpi_above_3, senate_incumbent_wins_primary, vix_below_20_eoy, interest_rate_cut_next_meeting, major_sports_upset) or your own baseRateValue. Use for "how does this price compare to history", "is the market ignoring the base rate", "historical frequency vs market".

Input parameters:

- `baseRateId` (string): Known base-rate id to look up (includes sample size + source).
- `baseRateValue` (number): Your own base rate in % (0–100), used when no baseRateId is given.
- `marketPrice` (required): Current market price in cents / implied probability % (0–100). Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.

### `bayes_update` (~206 tokens)

Bayesian Probability Update

Update a prior probability with one or more pieces of evidence using Bayes theorem. Given a prior and a list of evidence items (each with P(evidence | true) and P(evidence | false)), returns the posterior probability and the per-step chain. Use for "update my estimate with new information", "posterior probability", "how does this news change the odds".

Input parameters:

- `evidence` (array): One or more evidence items, applied in order. Each item needs likelihoodIfTrue and likelihoodIfFalse on the 0–100 scale, e.g. [{ "likelihoodIfTrue": 80, "likelihoodIfFalse": 20 }]. A single item may…
- `prior` (required): Prior probability the hypothesis is true, in % (0–100). Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.

### `calculate_ev` (~248 tokens)

Calculate EV Edge

Calculate the expected-value edge on a Kalshi or Polymarket prediction-market contract. Given the current market price (in cents, i.e. the implied probability) and your own probability estimate, returns the % edge and a BUY / SELL / SKIP signal with a plain-English read. Use for "is this contract mispriced", "what is my edge", "should I take this position". From the PredictionMarketsPicks desk, which publishes a settled per-engine record — every signal graded against the market that priced it, wins and losses both: predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.

Input parameters:

- `marketPrice` (required): Current contract price in cents (1–99), equal to the implied probability in %. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.
- `yourProbability` (required): Your own estimate of the true probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.

### `kelly_size` (~269 tokens)

Kelly Position Size

Compute the optimal Kelly position size for a prediction-market contract. Given your win probability, the market price (which sets the payout), your bankroll, and a Kelly fraction (full / half / quarter / eighth), returns the dollar stake and a risk rating. Use for "how much should I stake", "what is my position size", "Kelly sizing for this trade".

Input parameters:

- `bankroll`: Total bankroll in dollars (e.g. 1000). Optional — omit it and the result is the % of bankroll to stake, without a dollar figure. Accepts a number or a numeric string ("1000", "$1,000").
- `fraction` (string): Kelly fraction to apply. Half-Kelly is the common sharp-money default.
- `marketPrice` (required): Contract price in cents (1–99). Sets the payout ratio. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.
- `winProbability` (required): Your probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.

## Diagnostics

Captured diagnostic sections: TLS, DNSSEC, Authorisation, Transports. The full working is on the page: https://verifymcp.io/servers/com-predictionmarketspicks-weather/api-mcp-weather-mcp#diagnostics

## Score history

- 2026-09-27: 73
- 2026-09-26: 72
- 2026-09-25: 72
- 2026-09-24: 71
- 2026-09-23: 71
- 2026-09-22: 70
- 2026-09-21: 70
- 2026-09-20: 69
- 2026-09-19: 69
- 2026-09-18: 68
- 2026-09-17: 68
- 2026-09-16: 67
- 2026-09-15: 67
- 2026-09-14: 66
- 2026-09-13: 66
- 2026-09-12: 66
- 2026-09-11: 65
- 2026-09-10: 65

## Common questions

### What is the Weather Markets Edge Desk MCP server?

Weather Markets Edge Desk is an MCP server listed in the public MCP registry as com.predictionmarketspicks/weather. Kalshi weather markets: live daily-high temperature edges, plus EV, Kelly and base-rate tools. This page covers its hosted endpoint (https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp).

### Is the Weather Markets Edge Desk MCP server safe to use?

Weather Markets Edge Desk scores 73 out of 100 on VerifyMCP. That is a record of what we were able to check automatically, not an endorsement. The category breakdown on this page shows every signal behind the number, including the ones we could not confirm.

### What tools does the Weather Markets Edge Desk MCP server expose?

Weather Markets Edge Desk exposes 6 tools: edge_alerts, convert_probability, base_rate_gap, bayes_update, calculate_ev, kelly_size. Their descriptions and schemas cost roughly 1,427 tokens of context every time the server is loaded.

### Does the Weather Markets Edge Desk MCP server require authentication?

No. We connected to Weather Markets Edge Desk without credentials and it answered, so anything it exposes is reachable by anyone who knows the address.

### Is the Weather Markets Edge Desk MCP server still maintained?

Weather Markets Edge Desk is still listed as active in the MCP registry. We last reached this channel on 27 September 2026. Those dates come from our own scans of the registry and the channel itself, not from anything the publisher announced.

## Links

- Remote endpoint: https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp
- Repository: https://github.com/predictionmarketspicks/mcp
- Website: https://predictionmarketspicks.com/weather
- Changelog RSS feed: https://verifymcp.io/servers/com-predictionmarketspicks-weather/api-mcp-weather-mcp.xml
- Changelog JSON feed: https://verifymcp.io/servers/com-predictionmarketspicks-weather/api-mcp-weather-mcp.json
- HTML version of this page: https://verifymcp.io/servers/com-predictionmarketspicks-weather/api-mcp-weather-mcp