# Weather Markets Edge Desk (remote · predictionmarketspicks.com)

Kalshi weather markets: daily-high board beside the NWS forecast, live edges, EV, Kelly, base rates.

- Trust score: 85/100 (high trust)
- Change this week: +3
- Registry status: active
- Liveness: live
- Owner verified: no
- Last scored: 2026-11-05

## Components

- remote · `predictionmarketspicks.com`: 85/100 (this document), [markdown](https://verifymcp.io/servers/com-predictionmarketspicks-weather/api-mcp-weather-mcp-2.md), [page](https://verifymcp.io/servers/com-predictionmarketspicks-weather/api-mcp-weather-mcp-2)

## Channel facts

- Endpoint: `https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry`
- Transports: `streamable-http`
- Auth: `none`
- Version: `1.2.0`

## Trust breakdown

How this component scores in each security and reliability category. Every signal is checked automatically against the live server, and we only credit what we can confirm. Scores are 0–100 per category. Scoring method: https://verifymcp.io/docs/scoring (what has changed: https://verifymcp.io/docs/scoring/changelog)

Scored 2026-11-05.

- **Endpoint Security**: 80/100
  - The endpoint's TLS certificate is valid, in date, and uses a strong key.
  - No authorisation is required to call this server. Nothing on it is marked destructive, but we can't show that an anonymous caller can only read: full credit needs the server to list at least one tool and every tool to be verifiably read-only. We use a best-effort check of tool names and descriptions to tell read-only tools from tools that change things, so some genuinely read-only tools may not get full credit. Names that start with a read verb (get, list, read, search and similar) and accurate readOnlyHint annotations help. Meet that to earn full credit, or require authorisation.
  - HTTPS is enforced; there's no plaintext access path.
  - The HSTS (Strict-Transport-Security) header is present.
  - DNSSEC check failed: this domain isn't protected by DNSSEC.
- **Transport & Reachability**: 100/100
  - Verified streamable-http transport via a live MCP handshake.
- **Schema Quality & AI Usability**: 77/100
  - 100% of prompts and resources have a non-trivial description (not blank, and not just the item's name).
  - AI-judged instruction clarity (excellent).
  - Context-footprint check failed: tool/resource definitions use about 1540 tokens (~220/item across 7 items; 7 tools + 0 resources), over budget; trim descriptions and params.
  - Usage-examples check failed: none of the tools include examples.
- **Stability & Change Management**: 80/100
  - Stability observed for 24 of 30 days with no destabilising changes; credit accrues until the full window elapses.
- **Tool Coverage**: 100/100
  - 100% of tools have a non-trivial description (not blank, and not just the tool's name).
  - 100% of tool parameters carry a description.
  - Structured output schemas are declared (57% of tools); any adoption earns full credit.
- **Tool Safety**: 100/100
  - No prompt-injection markers were found in the server instructions, tool names or descriptions we captured.
  - We read all 7 captured tool definition(s), and no name or description among them implies an irreversible operation.
  - An AI judge read all 8 captured unit(s) of tool text and found none that tries to manipulate the model reading it.
- **Capabilities**: 100/100
  - Implements a current MCP spec version (2026-07-28).

## Install

### How do I install the Weather Markets Edge Desk MCP server?

Weather Markets Edge Desk is a hosted endpoint at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry, so there is nothing to install locally. Ready-made configuration for Claude, Cursor, VS Code, Codex and 5 more is on this page, copied from each client's own documentation.

### Claude

```bash
claude mcp add --transport http com-predictionmarketspicks-weather 'https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry'
```

### Cursor

```json
{
  "mcpServers": {
    "com-predictionmarketspicks-weather": {
      "url": "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry"
    }
  }
}
```

### VS Code

```json
{
  "servers": {
    "com-predictionmarketspicks-weather": {
      "type": "http",
      "url": "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry"
    }
  }
}
```

### Codex

```toml
[mcp_servers.com-predictionmarketspicks-weather]
url = "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry"
```

### opencode

```json
{
  "$schema": "https://opencode.ai/config.json",
  "mcp": {
    "com-predictionmarketspicks-weather": {
      "type": "remote",
      "url": "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry",
      "enabled": true
    }
  }
}
```

### OpenClaw

```bash
openclaw mcp add com-predictionmarketspicks-weather --url 'https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry' --transport streamable-http
```

### Hermes

```yaml
mcp_servers:
  com-predictionmarketspicks-weather:
    url: "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry"
```

### Netclaw

```json
{
  "McpServers": {
    "com-predictionmarketspicks-weather": {
      "Transport": "http",
      "Url": "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry"
    }
  }
}
```

### Vellum

```bash
assistant mcp add com-predictionmarketspicks-weather -t streamable-http -u 'https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry'
```

### Other

```json
{
  "mcpServers": {
    "com-predictionmarketspicks-weather": {
      "type": "http",
      "url": "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry"
    }
  }
}
```

The mcpServers block is a cross-client convention. Remote transports vary, so check your client's docs.

## Changelog

Every change recorded for this component, newest first. Days that predate change tracking, or that we cannot explain, say so: "we were watching and nothing happened" and "we were not watching" are different claims.

### 2026-11-05 (score 85, 0)

- [functional] The server no longer declares the “resources” capability
- [cosmetic] “weather_board” reworded the description of “day”
- [cosmetic] “kelly_size” reworded the description of “winProbability”
- [cosmetic] “kelly_size” reworded the description of “marketPrice”
- [cosmetic] “edge_alerts” reworded the description of “limit”
- [cosmetic] “kelly_size” made “winProbability” optional
- [cosmetic] “kelly_size” made “marketPrice” optional

### 2026-11-04 (score 85, +1)

No change was recorded against any check on this day. Stability & Change Management went from 73 to 77. That category is still filling its 30-day observation window: 22 days of observed history at the previous scan, 23 at this one. The score rises as the window fills, whether or not the server changes.

### 2026-11-02 (score 84, +1)

No change was recorded against any check on this day. Stability & Change Management went from 67 to 70. That category is still filling its 30-day observation window: 20 days of observed history at the previous scan, 21 at this one. The score rises as the window fills, whether or not the server changes.

### 2026-10-31 (score 83, +1)

No change was recorded against any check on this day. Stability & Change Management went from 60 to 63. That category is still filling its 30-day observation window: 18 days of observed history at the previous scan, 19 at this one. The score rises as the window fills, whether or not the server changes.

### 2026-10-29 (score 82, +1)

No change was recorded against any check on this day. Stability & Change Management went from 53 to 57. That category is still filling its 30-day observation window: 16 days of observed history at the previous scan, 17 at this one. The score rises as the window fills, whether or not the server changes.

### 2026-10-26 (score 81, +1)

No change was recorded against any check on this day. Stability & Change Management went from 43 to 47. That category is still filling its 30-day observation window: 13 days of observed history at the previous scan, 14 at this one. The score rises as the window fills, whether or not the server changes.

### 2026-10-24 (score 80, +1)

- [security] Tool “edge_alerts” rewrote its description, which is the text the model reads
- [cosmetic] “base_rate_gap” reworded the description of “baseRateId”
- [cosmetic] “kelly_size” reworded the description of “bankroll”
- [cosmetic] “edge_alerts” reworded the description of “limit”
- [cosmetic] “convert_probability” reworded the description of “value”

### 2026-10-23 (score 79, +1)

No change was recorded against any check on this day. Stability & Change Management went from 33 to 37. That category is still filling its 30-day observation window: 10 days of observed history at the previous scan, 11 at this one. The score rises as the window fills, whether or not the server changes.

## MCP tools (7)

### `weather_board` (~112 tokens)

Kalshi Weather Board — daily-high strikes vs the NWS forecast

Use for "Kalshi NYC high temperature odds". Every open Kalshi daily-high strike in 13 cities: YES price, settlement station and source, the strict-comparison rule, close time, and the NWS forecast high beside it. Pass city ("nyc", "KXHIGHCHI"). Market data only.

Input parameters:

- `city` (string): City name or series ("nyc", "KXHIGHTBOS"). Omit for all.
- `day`: today (default) · tomorrow · all.

Output parameters:

- `as_of`: When the board was read.
- `cities`: Per city and settlement day: NWS high, close time, strikes with two-sided YES mids.
- `data_freshness`
- `example_call`
- `needs_input`
- `rule`: The strict comparison Kalshi settles on.
- `sources`
- `tell_user` (string): Show this sentence to the user first.
- `timestamp` (string)

### `edge_alerts` (~216 tokens)

Edge Alerts (weather / commodity / mispricing)

Use for "any edge on Kalshi", "where is the edge today" and "weather trade signals". Our model alerts on Kalshi — weather, bitcoin/silver/gold/oil, mispricings — with feed, tier, side, price, model probability, edge and link. Real time with Pro; free is delayed 24h without the thesis. One identical, impersonal feed for every subscriber; filters only select. Informational, not investment advice.

Input parameters:

- `feed` (string): Comma-separated feeds to include: weather, bitcoin, silver, gold, oil, mispricing, sports_arb, nfl. Omit for all.
- `limit` (number|string|null): Max alerts to return (default 25; 4 when the call has no arguments).
- `min_tier`: Minimum confidence tier (returns that tier and above). One of: SPECULATIVE · MODERATE · STRONG.
- `since` (string): ISO-8601 timestamp — only alerts created after it.

### `convert_probability` (~142 tokens)

Convert Probability / Odds

Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. Give one value and its format and get all three back (American odds carry no commas, e.g. +441 or -200). Use for "what is +150 as a probability", "convert 62% to American odds", "decimal to implied odds".

Input parameters:

- `format`: Format of `value`: probability (0–100 %), american (e.g. -200 / +150), or decimal (e.g. 2.5). One of: probability · american · decimal.
- `value` (number|string): The numeric value to convert. Needed for a real answer, with format.

Output parameters:

- `american_odds`: American odds, no commas.
- `data_freshness`
- `decimal_odds`: Decimal odds.
- `example_call`
- `needs_input`
- `probability_pct`: Implied probability, %.
- `sources`
- `tell_user` (string): Show this sentence to the user first.
- `timestamp` (string)

### `base_rate_gap` (~191 tokens)

Base Rate Gap

Use for "how does this price compare to history" and "is the market ignoring the base rate". Compares a market price with the historical base rate for a class of events: the gap in pp, a signal, and sample-size quality. Pass a known baseRateId (the parameter lists them) or your own baseRateValue.

Input parameters:

- `baseRateId`: Known base-rate id to look up (includes sample size + source).
- `baseRateValue` (number): Your own base rate in % (0–100), used when no baseRateId is given.
- `marketPrice` (number|string): Current market price in cents / implied probability % (0–100). Needed for a real answer. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.

### `bayes_update` (~205 tokens)

Bayesian Probability Update

Update a prior probability with one or more pieces of evidence using Bayes theorem. Given a prior and a list of evidence items (each with P(evidence | true) and P(evidence | false)), returns the posterior probability and the per-step chain. Use for "update my estimate with new information", "posterior probability", "how does this news change the odds".

Input parameters:

- `evidence` (array): One or more evidence items, applied in order. Each item needs likelihoodIfTrue and likelihoodIfFalse on the 0–100 scale, e.g. [{ "likelihoodIfTrue": 80, "likelihoodIfFalse": 20 }].
- `prior` (number|string): Prior probability the hypothesis is true, in % (0–100). Needed for a real answer. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.

### `calculate_ev` (~194 tokens)

Calculate EV Edge

Use for "is this contract mispriced" and "what is my edge". Give a Kalshi or Polymarket price in cents and your own probability; returns the % expected-value edge and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read.

Input parameters:

- `marketPrice` (number|string): Current contract price in cents (1–99), equal to the implied probability in %. Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.
- `yourProbability` (number|string): Your own estimate of the true probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.

Output parameters:

- `data_freshness`
- `edge_pct`: Expected-value edge, %.
- `edge_pp`: Your probability minus the price, pp.
- `example_call`
- `interpretation`: Plain-English read.
- `market_price_cents`: Price used, cents.
- `needs_input`
- `signal`: BUY / SELL / SKIP.
- `sources`
- `tell_user` (string): Show this sentence to the user first.
- `timestamp` (string)
- `your_probability_pct`: Probability used, %.

### `kelly_size` (~300 tokens)

Kelly Position Size

Compute the optimal Kelly position size for a prediction-market contract. Given your win probability, the market price (which sets the payout), your bankroll, and a Kelly fraction (full / half / quarter / eighth), returns the dollar stake and a risk rating. Use for "how much should I stake", "what is my position size", "Kelly sizing for this trade".

Input parameters:

- `bankroll` (number|string): Total bankroll in dollars (e.g. 1000). Optional — omit it and the result is the % of bankroll to stake, without a dollar figure.
- `fraction`: Kelly fraction to apply. Half-Kelly is the common sharp-money default. One of: full · half · quarter · eighth.
- `marketPrice` (number|string): Contract price in cents (1–99). Sets the payout ratio. Omit both this and winProbability for the inputs and a worked example. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) —…
- `winProbability` (number|string): Your probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Omit both this and marketPrice for the inputs and a worked example. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) —…

Output parameters:

- `applied_fraction_pct`: The fraction applied, %.
- `data_freshness`
- `example_call`
- `full_kelly_pct`: Full-Kelly fraction of bankroll, %.
- `needs_input`
- `rating`: Qualitative read of the sizing.
- `sources`
- `stake_dollars`: Suggested stake in dollars (when a bankroll was given).
- `tell_user` (string): Show this sentence to the user first.
- `timestamp` (string)

## Diagnostics

Captured diagnostic sections: TLS, DNSSEC, Authorisation, Transports. The full working is on the page: https://verifymcp.io/servers/com-predictionmarketspicks-weather/api-mcp-weather-mcp-2#diagnostics

## Score history

- 2026-11-05: 85
- 2026-11-04: 85
- 2026-11-03: 84
- 2026-11-02: 84
- 2026-11-01: 83
- 2026-10-31: 83
- 2026-10-30: 82
- 2026-10-29: 82
- 2026-10-28: 81
- 2026-10-27: 81
- 2026-10-26: 81
- 2026-10-25: 80
- 2026-10-24: 80
- 2026-10-23: 79
- 2026-10-22: 78
- 2026-10-21: 78
- 2026-10-20: 78
- 2026-10-19: 77
- 2026-10-18: 77
- 2026-10-17: 76
- 2026-10-16: 76
- 2026-10-15: 75
- 2026-10-14: 75
- 2026-10-13: 74
- 2026-10-12: 74

## Common questions

### What is the Weather Markets Edge Desk MCP server?

Weather Markets Edge Desk is an MCP server listed in the public MCP registry as com.predictionmarketspicks/weather. Kalshi weather markets: daily-high board beside the NWS forecast, live edges, EV, Kelly, base rates. This page covers its hosted endpoint (https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry).

### Is the Weather Markets Edge Desk MCP server safe to use?

Weather Markets Edge Desk scores 85 out of 100 on VerifyMCP. That is a record of what we were able to check automatically, not an endorsement. The category breakdown on this page shows every signal behind the number, including the ones we could not confirm.

### What tools does the Weather Markets Edge Desk MCP server expose?

Weather Markets Edge Desk exposes 7 tools: weather_board, edge_alerts, convert_probability, base_rate_gap, bayes_update, and 2 more. Their descriptions and schemas cost roughly 1,360 tokens of context every time the server is loaded.

### Does the Weather Markets Edge Desk MCP server require authentication?

No. We connected to Weather Markets Edge Desk without credentials and it answered, so anything it exposes is reachable by anyone who knows the address.

### Is the Weather Markets Edge Desk MCP server still maintained?

Weather Markets Edge Desk is still listed as active in the MCP registry. We last reached this channel on 5 November 2026. Those dates come from our own scans of the registry and the channel itself, not from anything the publisher announced.

### What did VerifyMCP test on the Weather Markets Edge Desk MCP server?

VerifyMCP ran 13 checks on Weather Markets Edge Desk, covering TLS certificate, Authorization, HTTPS, HSTS header and 9 more. Supply Chain Security and Provenance & Transparency do not apply to a hosted endpoint, so they were not tested. The score does not measure everything, and the scoring documentation lists what it leaves out.

## Links

- Remote endpoint: https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-weather/mcp?via=registry
- Repository: https://github.com/predictionmarketspicks/mcp
- Website: https://predictionmarketspicks.com/weather
- Changelog RSS feed: https://verifymcp.io/servers/com-predictionmarketspicks-weather/api-mcp-weather-mcp-2.xml
- Changelog JSON feed: https://verifymcp.io/servers/com-predictionmarketspicks-weather/api-mcp-weather-mcp-2/changelog.json
- Trust report (JSON): https://verifymcp.io/servers/com-predictionmarketspicks-weather/api-mcp-weather-mcp-2.json
- HTML version of this page: https://verifymcp.io/servers/com-predictionmarketspicks-weather/api-mcp-weather-mcp-2