# Macro & Commodities Desk (remote · predictionmarketspicks.com)

Kalshi macro: Fed rate odds, gold, silver, oil and bitcoin edges, 15-min markets, Kelly sizing.

- Trust score: 83/100 (high trust)
- Change this week: +3
- Registry status: active
- Liveness: live
- Owner verified: no
- Last scored: 2026-11-05

## Components

- remote · `predictionmarketspicks.com`: 83/100 (this document), [markdown](https://verifymcp.io/servers/com-predictionmarketspicks-commodities/api-mcp-commodities-mcp-2.md), [page](https://verifymcp.io/servers/com-predictionmarketspicks-commodities/api-mcp-commodities-mcp-2)

## Channel facts

- Endpoint: `https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-commodities/mcp?via=registry`
- Transports: `streamable-http`
- Auth: `none`
- Version: `1.2.0`

## Trust breakdown

How this component scores in each security and reliability category. Every signal is checked automatically against the live server, and we only credit what we can confirm. Scores are 0–100 per category. Scoring method: https://verifymcp.io/docs/scoring (what has changed: https://verifymcp.io/docs/scoring/changelog)

Scored 2026-11-05.

- **Endpoint Security**: 80/100
  - The endpoint's TLS certificate is valid, in date, and uses a strong key.
  - No authorisation is required to call this server. Nothing on it is marked destructive, but we can't show that an anonymous caller can only read: full credit needs the server to list at least one tool and every tool to be verifiably read-only. We use a best-effort check of tool names and descriptions to tell read-only tools from tools that change things, so some genuinely read-only tools may not get full credit. Names that start with a read verb (get, list, read, search and similar) and accurate readOnlyHint annotations help. Meet that to earn full credit, or require authorisation.
  - HTTPS is enforced; there's no plaintext access path.
  - The HSTS (Strict-Transport-Security) header is present.
  - DNSSEC check failed: this domain isn't protected by DNSSEC.
- **Transport & Reachability**: 100/100
  - Verified streamable-http transport via a live MCP handshake.
- **Schema Quality & AI Usability**: 65/100
  - 67% of prompts and resources have a non-trivial description (not blank, and not just the item's name).
  - AI-judged instruction clarity (good).
  - Context-footprint check failed: tool/resource definitions use about 1986 tokens (~165/item across 12 items; 10 tools + 2 resources), over budget; trim descriptions and params.
  - Usage-examples check failed: none of the tools include examples.
- **Stability & Change Management**: 80/100
  - Stability observed for 24 of 30 days with no destabilising changes; credit accrues until the full window elapses.
- **Tool Coverage**: 100/100
  - 100% of tools have a non-trivial description (not blank, and not just the tool's name).
  - 100% of tool parameters carry a description.
  - Structured output schemas are declared (60% of tools); any adoption earns full credit.
- **Tool Safety**: 100/100
  - No prompt-injection markers were found in the server instructions, tool names or descriptions we captured.
  - We read all 10 captured tool definition(s), and no name or description among them implies an irreversible operation.
  - An AI judge read all 12 captured unit(s) of tool text and found none that tries to manipulate the model reading it.
- **Capabilities**: 100/100
  - Implements a current MCP spec version (2026-07-28).
  - Supports UI / widget rendering.

## Install

### How do I install the Macro & Commodities Desk MCP server?

Macro & Commodities Desk is a hosted endpoint at https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-commodities/mcp?via=registry, so there is nothing to install locally. Ready-made configuration for Claude, Cursor, VS Code, Codex and 5 more is on this page, copied from each client's own documentation.

### Claude

```bash
claude mcp add --transport http com-predictionmarketspicks-commodities 'https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-commodities/mcp?via=registry'
```

### Cursor

```json
{
  "mcpServers": {
    "com-predictionmarketspicks-commodities": {
      "url": "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-commodities/mcp?via=registry"
    }
  }
}
```

### VS Code

```json
{
  "servers": {
    "com-predictionmarketspicks-commodities": {
      "type": "http",
      "url": "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-commodities/mcp?via=registry"
    }
  }
}
```

### Codex

```toml
[mcp_servers.com-predictionmarketspicks-commodities]
url = "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-commodities/mcp?via=registry"
```

### opencode

```json
{
  "$schema": "https://opencode.ai/config.json",
  "mcp": {
    "com-predictionmarketspicks-commodities": {
      "type": "remote",
      "url": "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-commodities/mcp?via=registry",
      "enabled": true
    }
  }
}
```

### OpenClaw

```bash
openclaw mcp add com-predictionmarketspicks-commodities --url 'https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-commodities/mcp?via=registry' --transport streamable-http
```

### Hermes

```yaml
mcp_servers:
  com-predictionmarketspicks-commodities:
    url: "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-commodities/mcp?via=registry"
```

### Netclaw

```json
{
  "McpServers": {
    "com-predictionmarketspicks-commodities": {
      "Transport": "http",
      "Url": "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-commodities/mcp?via=registry"
    }
  }
}
```

### Vellum

```bash
assistant mcp add com-predictionmarketspicks-commodities -t streamable-http -u 'https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-commodities/mcp?via=registry'
```

### Other

```json
{
  "mcpServers": {
    "com-predictionmarketspicks-commodities": {
      "type": "http",
      "url": "https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-commodities/mcp?via=registry"
    }
  }
}
```

The mcpServers block is a cross-client convention. Remote transports vary, so check your client's docs.

## Changelog

Every change recorded for this component, newest first. Days that predate change tracking, or that we cannot explain, say so: "we were watching and nothing happened" and "we were not watching" are different claims.

### 2026-11-05 (score 83, +1)

- [cosmetic] “fed_rate_odds” added an optional parameter “horizon”
- [cosmetic] “kelly_size” reworded the description of “winProbability”
- [cosmetic] “kelly_size” reworded the description of “marketPrice”
- [cosmetic] “kelly_size” made “winProbability” optional
- [cosmetic] “kelly_size” made “marketPrice” optional

### 2026-11-02 (score 82, +1)

No change was recorded against any check on this day. Stability & Change Management went from 67 to 70. That category is still filling its 30-day observation window: 20 days of observed history at the previous scan, 21 at this one. The score rises as the window fills, whether or not the server changes.

### 2026-10-31 (score 81, +1)

No change was recorded against any check on this day. Stability & Change Management went from 60 to 63. That category is still filling its 30-day observation window: 18 days of observed history at the previous scan, 19 at this one. The score rises as the window fills, whether or not the server changes.

### 2026-10-29 (score 80, +1)

No change was recorded against any check on this day. Stability & Change Management went from 53 to 57. That category is still filling its 30-day observation window: 16 days of observed history at the previous scan, 17 at this one. The score rises as the window fills, whether or not the server changes.

### 2026-10-28 (score 79, 0)

- [cosmetic] “fifteen_min_board” added an optional parameter “horizon”

### 2026-10-27 (score 79, +1)

No change was recorded against any check on this day. Stability & Change Management went from 47 to 50. That category is still filling its 30-day observation window: 14 days of observed history at the previous scan, 15 at this one. The score rises as the window fills, whether or not the server changes.

### 2026-10-25 (score 78, +1)

No change was recorded against any check on this day. Stability & Change Management went from 40 to 43. That category is still filling its 30-day observation window: 12 days of observed history at the previous scan, 13 at this one. The score rises as the window fills, whether or not the server changes.

### 2026-10-24 (score 77, 0)

- [security] Tool “fifteen_min_board” rewrote its description, which is the text the model reads
- [functional improvement] Schema quality: 183 → 157
- [cosmetic] “fifteen_min_board” reworded the description of “limit”
- [cosmetic] “convert_probability” reworded the description of “value”
- [cosmetic] “commodity_edge” reworded the description of “tickers”
- [cosmetic] “base_rate_gap” reworded the description of “baseRateId”
- [cosmetic] “perp_liquidation” reworded the description of “margin”
- [cosmetic] “perps_board” reworded the description of “limit”
- [cosmetic] “perp_liquidation” reworded the description of “entry”
- [cosmetic] “perp_liquidation” reworded the description of “asset”
- [cosmetic] “kelly_size” reworded the description of “bankroll”

## MCP tools (10)

### `fifteen_min_board` (~231 tokens)

Kalshi 15-Minute Markets — every series, live

Use for "what is the ETH 15-minute market doing" and "which Kalshi 15-minute markets are open". Every Kalshi 15-minute up-or-down series (crypto, metals, energy, FX): window status, YES price, close time, target, settlement source and the up rate over the last 96 windows; the same window on Polymarket international for BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP; and our live Bitcoin top-of-hour strategy with its record.

Input parameters:

- `asset_class`: crypto · commodity · currency · all (default all).
- `horizon`: 15m (Kalshi, default) or 5m (Polymarket US BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP; Kalshi lists none). One of: 15m · 5m.
- `limit` (number|string|null): Max rows (default 30).
- `open_only` (boolean): Only series with a window open right now (default false).
- `series` (string): One series: ticker (KXETH15M) or asset ("eth", "gold", "euro").

Output parameters:

- `as_of`: When the board was read.
- `data_freshness`
- `example_call`
- `needs_input`
- `our_model`: Bitcoin only: our published top-of-hour strategy — version and status ("current version": it stays until it breaks), live_record (our own Kalshi account, after fees), paper record, last_call (the bot…
- `rows`: Kalshi 15-minute series: window status, YES price, close time, target, settlement source, up rate; for BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP the same window on Polymarket (international, live book: price_source, as_of), a…
- `sources`
- `tell_user` (string): Show this sentence to the user first.
- `timestamp` (string)

### `perps_board` (~114 tokens)

Kalshi Perps Board — price, leverage and funding for every perp

Use for "Kalshi perps funding rate" and "how much leverage on Kalshi gold perps". Every Kalshi perpetual future: price, 24h volume, open interest, max leverage long and short, funding cadence, and what funding has cost a long since launch. Pass asset ("btc", "gold") for one.

Input parameters:

- `asset` (string): One perp: symbol or name ("btc", "gold", "XAG").
- `limit` (number|string|null): Max rows (default 25).

Output parameters:

- `as_of`: When the board was read.
- `data_freshness`
- `example_call`
- `needs_input`
- `rows`: Kalshi perps: price, 24h volume, open interest, max leverage, funding.
- `sources`
- `tell_user` (string): Show this sentence to the user first.
- `timestamp` (string)

### `perp_liquidation` (~226 tokens)

Kalshi Perp Liquidation — where a leveraged position gets closed out

Use for "where does a 5x bitcoin long liquidate on Kalshi". Estimates a Kalshi perp's liquidation price and the % move to it from Kalshi's risk parameters (a 5x BTC long is about 8% away, not the 20% the 100÷leverage rule implies), plus fees and expected funding. An estimate; Kalshi's app shows the exact one. Assets: btc, eth, sol, xrp, doge, hype, link, gold, silver, platinum, palladium. Free.

Input parameters:

- `asset`: The perp.
- `entry` (number|string): Entry price (default: the live price).
- `hold_days` (number): Days held, for the funding estimate (default 7).
- `leverage` (number|string): Leverage, e.g. 5 or "5x". Capped at Kalshi’s maximum for the size and side.
- `margin` (number|string): Margin in dollars (default 1000).
- `side`: Direction. One of: long · short.

### `commodity_edge` (~159 tokens)

Commodity Edge (Gold / Silver / Oil / Bitcoin)

Use for "gold edge today" and "oil or bitcoin trade signal". The Kalshi daily gold, silver or WTI strike, or hourly bitcoin strike, with the largest PMP model edge, as a ticket: side, entry price, resolve criterion, model probability, edge, tier and quarter-Kelly size. Pass tickers[] to check a watchlist. Pro — sign in with PredictionMarketsPicks, or a Pro API key.

Input parameters:

- `commodity`: Which commodity edge to read (needed for a real answer). One of: silver · bitcoin · gold · oil.
- `tickers` (array): Optional Kalshi ticker watchlist (up to 25), market or event tickers. Unmodeled tickers return not_covered.

### `market_pulse` (~110 tokens)

Market Pulse — Macro

The US macro-health composite (0–100) and regime plus the six category scores (growth, labor, inflation, rates, liquidity, sentiment). Returns the composite, the regime call and 2 category scores without an account, 4 to a signed-in account, and all six with Pro. Use for "how is the US economy", "macro regime", "risk-on or risk-off".

Input parameters:

- `topic`: macro = the US macro-health composite (the only topic). One of: macro.

### `fed_rate_odds` (~109 tokens)

Fed Rate Odds (FOMC)

Use for "will the Fed cut, hold or hike" and "next FOMC meeting odds". Live Kalshi odds for each remaining 2026 FOMC meeting: the next meeting's full strike breakdown and days-until, the rate path, the current fed funds rate, and a next-meeting cross-venue check against Polymarket and CME futures, with the gap in pp.

Input parameters:

- `horizon` (number|string|null): Meetings in the rate path (default 3).

Output parameters:

- `by_venue`: Next-meeting odds by venue (Kalshi, Polymarket, CME futures).
- `current_target_range`: Current fed funds target range.
- `data_freshness`
- `divergence_pp`: Headline cross-venue gap for the next meeting, pp.
- `example_call`
- `needs_input`
- `next_meeting`: Next FOMC meeting: date, days until, strike breakdown.
- `rate_path_2026`: Implied outcome at each remaining 2026 meeting.
- `sources`
- `tell_user` (string): Show this sentence to the user first.
- `timestamp` (string)

### `base_rate_gap` (~191 tokens)

Base Rate Gap

Use for "how does this price compare to history" and "is the market ignoring the base rate". Compares a market price with the historical base rate for a class of events: the gap in pp, a signal, and sample-size quality. Pass a known baseRateId (the parameter lists them) or your own baseRateValue.

Input parameters:

- `baseRateId`: Known base-rate id to look up (includes sample size + source).
- `baseRateValue` (number): Your own base rate in % (0–100), used when no baseRateId is given.
- `marketPrice` (number|string): Current market price in cents / implied probability % (0–100). Needed for a real answer. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.

### `convert_probability` (~142 tokens)

Convert Probability / Odds

Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds. Give one value and its format and get all three back (American odds carry no commas, e.g. +441 or -200). Use for "what is +150 as a probability", "convert 62% to American odds", "decimal to implied odds".

Input parameters:

- `format`: Format of `value`: probability (0–100 %), american (e.g. -200 / +150), or decimal (e.g. 2.5). One of: probability · american · decimal.
- `value` (number|string): The numeric value to convert. Needed for a real answer, with format.

Output parameters:

- `american_odds`: American odds, no commas.
- `data_freshness`
- `decimal_odds`: Decimal odds.
- `example_call`
- `needs_input`
- `probability_pct`: Implied probability, %.
- `sources`
- `tell_user` (string): Show this sentence to the user first.
- `timestamp` (string)

### `calculate_ev` (~194 tokens)

Calculate EV Edge

Use for "is this contract mispriced" and "what is my edge". Give a Kalshi or Polymarket price in cents and your own probability; returns the % expected-value edge and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read.

Input parameters:

- `marketPrice` (number|string): Current contract price in cents (1–99), equal to the implied probability in %. Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.
- `yourProbability` (number|string): Your own estimate of the true probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Required for a real answer. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) — all read as 55%.

Output parameters:

- `data_freshness`
- `edge_pct`: Expected-value edge, %.
- `edge_pp`: Your probability minus the price, pp.
- `example_call`
- `interpretation`: Plain-English read.
- `market_price_cents`: Price used, cents.
- `needs_input`
- `signal`: BUY / SELL / SKIP.
- `sources`
- `tell_user` (string): Show this sentence to the user first.
- `timestamp` (string)
- `your_probability_pct`: Probability used, %.

### `kelly_size` (~300 tokens)

Kelly Position Size

Compute the optimal Kelly position size for a prediction-market contract. Given your win probability, the market price (which sets the payout), your bankroll, and a Kelly fraction (full / half / quarter / eighth), returns the dollar stake and a risk rating. Use for "how much should I stake", "what is my position size", "Kelly sizing for this trade".

Input parameters:

- `bankroll` (number|string): Total bankroll in dollars (e.g. 1000). Optional — omit it and the result is the % of bankroll to stake, without a dollar figure.
- `fraction`: Kelly fraction to apply. Half-Kelly is the common sharp-money default. One of: full · half · quarter · eighth.
- `marketPrice` (number|string): Contract price in cents (1–99). Sets the payout ratio. Omit both this and winProbability for the inputs and a worked example. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) —…
- `winProbability` (number|string): Your probability the contract resolves YES, in % (0–100). Omit both this and marketPrice for the inputs and a worked example. Accepts 55, "55%", "55¢", "$0.55", 0.55 or American odds (+120 / -150) —…

Output parameters:

- `applied_fraction_pct`: The fraction applied, %.
- `data_freshness`
- `example_call`
- `full_kelly_pct`: Full-Kelly fraction of bankroll, %.
- `needs_input`
- `rating`: Qualitative read of the sizing.
- `sources`
- `stake_dollars`: Suggested stake in dollars (when a bankroll was given).
- `tell_user` (string): Show this sentence to the user first.
- `timestamp` (string)

## Diagnostics

Captured diagnostic sections: TLS, DNSSEC, Authorisation, Transports. The full working is on the page: https://verifymcp.io/servers/com-predictionmarketspicks-commodities/api-mcp-commodities-mcp-2#diagnostics

## Score history

- 2026-11-05: 83
- 2026-11-04: 82
- 2026-11-03: 82
- 2026-11-02: 82
- 2026-11-01: 81
- 2026-10-31: 81
- 2026-10-30: 80
- 2026-10-29: 80
- 2026-10-28: 79
- 2026-10-27: 79
- 2026-10-26: 78
- 2026-10-25: 78
- 2026-10-24: 77
- 2026-10-23: 77
- 2026-10-22: 76
- 2026-10-21: 76
- 2026-10-20: 75
- 2026-10-19: 75
- 2026-10-18: 74
- 2026-10-17: 74
- 2026-10-16: 73
- 2026-10-15: 73
- 2026-10-14: 73
- 2026-10-13: 72
- 2026-10-12: 72

## Common questions

### What is the Macro & Commodities Desk MCP server?

Macro & Commodities Desk is an MCP server listed in the public MCP registry as com.predictionmarketspicks/commodities. Kalshi macro: Fed rate odds, gold, silver, oil and bitcoin edges, 15-min markets, Kelly sizing. This page covers its hosted endpoint (https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-commodities/mcp?via=registry).

### Is the Macro & Commodities Desk MCP server safe to use?

Macro & Commodities Desk scores 83 out of 100 on VerifyMCP. That is a record of what we were able to check automatically, not an endorsement. The category breakdown on this page shows every signal behind the number, including the ones we could not confirm.

### What tools does the Macro & Commodities Desk MCP server expose?

Macro & Commodities Desk exposes 10 tools: fifteen_min_board, perps_board, perp_liquidation, commodity_edge, market_pulse, and 5 more. Their descriptions and schemas cost roughly 1,776 tokens of context every time the server is loaded.

### Does the Macro & Commodities Desk MCP server require authentication?

No. We connected to Macro & Commodities Desk without credentials and it answered, so anything it exposes is reachable by anyone who knows the address.

### Is the Macro & Commodities Desk MCP server still maintained?

Macro & Commodities Desk is still listed as active in the MCP registry. We last reached this channel on 5 November 2026. Those dates come from our own scans of the registry and the channel itself, not from anything the publisher announced.

### What did VerifyMCP test on the Macro & Commodities Desk MCP server?

VerifyMCP ran 14 checks on Macro & Commodities Desk, covering TLS certificate, Authorization, HTTPS, HSTS header and 10 more. Supply Chain Security and Provenance & Transparency do not apply to a hosted endpoint, so they were not tested. The score does not measure everything, and the scoring documentation lists what it leaves out.

## Links

- Remote endpoint: https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp-commodities/mcp?via=registry
- Repository: https://github.com/predictionmarketspicks/mcp
- Website: https://predictionmarketspicks.com/commodity-markets
- Changelog RSS feed: https://verifymcp.io/servers/com-predictionmarketspicks-commodities/api-mcp-commodities-mcp-2.xml
- Changelog JSON feed: https://verifymcp.io/servers/com-predictionmarketspicks-commodities/api-mcp-commodities-mcp-2/changelog.json
- Trust report (JSON): https://verifymcp.io/servers/com-predictionmarketspicks-commodities/api-mcp-commodities-mcp-2.json
- HTML version of this page: https://verifymcp.io/servers/com-predictionmarketspicks-commodities/api-mcp-commodities-mcp-2